The coronavirus pandemic has had potentially destructive consequences for countries in the developing world, especially those struggling with insecurity. The question of whether COVID-19 has a dramatic effect on crime and conflict in 2021 may be too soon to tell, but the long-term implications of unemployment growth combined with a reduction in real incomes is expected to engender social, economic and political upheaval, which will benefit organized crime and enable armed groups seeking to exploit sources of tension, increase recruitment and win popular support.
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